Global stagnation: Difference between revisions
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'''Global stagnation''' is generally considered | '''Global stagnation''' is generally considered in late 2011 to be a possible short-term prospect, involving a large part of the world economy. Of 30 countries surveyed by the [[International Monetary Fund]], the growth rates of the economies of 20 were classified as "below trend and moderating", 8 as "below trend and rising", and 2 as "above trend"<ref>[http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/02/pdf/text.pdf ''Slowing Growth, Rising Risks'', World Economic Outlook, IMF, September 2011, Fig 1.4 p6]</ref>. The general slowdown of economic growth that occurred in 2011, following the strong growth of 2010, is thought to be attributable to a range of factors, including:<br> | ||
(a) the completion of the stockbuilding phase of the [[inventory cycle]] that normally follows a [[recession (economics)|recession]];<br> | |||
(b) the [[Shock (economics)|economic shock]] caused by the [[tsunami|Japanese tsunami]] of March 2011;<br> | |||
(c) continuing [[deleveraging]] by banks and the consequently continuing [[credit crunch]] affecting small companiies;<br> | |||
(d) the effect on demand of continuing deleveraging by companies and households;<br> | |||
(e) the effect on demand of the reductions in [[public expenditure]] and the other [[fiscal adjustment]]s in the [[Great Recession#Fiscal aftermath (2010-11 )|fiscal aftermath]] of the [[Great Recession]];<br> | |||
(f) | |||
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Revision as of 06:05, 12 October 2011
Global stagnation is generally considered in late 2011 to be a possible short-term prospect, involving a large part of the world economy. Of 30 countries surveyed by the International Monetary Fund, the growth rates of the economies of 20 were classified as "below trend and moderating", 8 as "below trend and rising", and 2 as "above trend"[1]. The general slowdown of economic growth that occurred in 2011, following the strong growth of 2010, is thought to be attributable to a range of factors, including:
(a) the completion of the stockbuilding phase of the inventory cycle that normally follows a recession;
(b) the economic shock caused by the Japanese tsunami of March 2011;
(c) continuing deleveraging by banks and the consequently continuing credit crunch affecting small companiies;
(d) the effect on demand of continuing deleveraging by companies and households;
(e) the effect on demand of the reductions in public expenditure and the other fiscal adjustments in the fiscal aftermath of the Great Recession;
(f)