Recession of 2009/Addendum: Difference between revisions

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'''G20 leaders agree on need for fiscal stimulus [http://en.citizendium.org/wiki/G20_summit/Addendum]
'''G20 leaders agree on need for fiscal stimulus [http://en.citizendium.org/wiki/G20_summit/Addendum]
'''The oil price falls'''. (December Brent North Sea crude $45/barrel, down fron July $147 peak)[http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hN_FBZ_T8tDZj6pWYGzYVZMH9Htg].


====The United States====
====The United States====
'''US output falls''' - real GDP  fell (on 1st estimate) at an annualised  rate of 3.8% in the 4th quarter of 2008 [http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2009/pdf/gdp408a.pdf]
'''US consumer confidence falls''' to its lowest point since first measured in 1967[http://www.conference-board.org/economics/ConsumerConfidence.cfm].
'''US interest rate cut''' Federal  Reserve Bank's benchmark rate cut to betweee 0 and 1/4% [http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20081216b.htm.].


'''US national debt reaches 72.5% of GDP'''
'''US national debt reaches 72.5% of GDP'''
'''Dollar interbank rate fall''' - 3-month LIBOR falls  from 2.8% (September) to 1.58%  (Dec 17)[http://uk.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsUS/idUKLH25052920081217].


'''US unemployment rate  the highest for 14 years''' -  6.7% in November 2008[http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/bbemp-20081205.pdf].
'''US unemployment rate  the highest for 14 years''' -  6.7% in November 2008[http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/bbemp-20081205.pdf].


'''US consumer prices record  falls ''' - by 1% in October [http://www.bls.gov/CPI/]and 1.7% in November [http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/16/news/economy/cpi/index.htm]
'''US consumer prices record  falls ''' - by 1% in October [http://www.bls.gov/CPI/]and 1.7% in November [http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/16/news/economy/cpi/index.htm]
'''US congress fails to agree on fiscal stimulus''' [http://www.economist.com/world/unitedstates/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12641712][http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/business/july-dec08/stimulusplans_11-10.html] [http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/10/stimulus-math-wonkish/?apage=6]


'''US Federal Reserve Bank's $800 billion support package''' [http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/26/business/economy/26fed.html?bl&ex=1227848400&en=5a50becfbe5bac73&ei=5087%0A]
'''US Federal Reserve Bank's $800 billion support package''' [http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/26/business/economy/26fed.html?bl&ex=1227848400&en=5a50becfbe5bac73&ei=5087%0A]
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'''US national debt reaches 72.5% 0f GDP'''[http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/economics/list-of-national-debt-by-country/]
'''US national debt reaches 72.5% 0f GDP'''[http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/economics/list-of-national-debt-by-country/]


====Eurozone====
'''European Fiscal Stimulus''' EC Commission plans 1.5% GDP fiscal stimulus [http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSLC32832320081212].
'''Eurozone interest rate cut''' - by the European Central Bank by 1.5 p points to 2.5% [http://www.ecb.int/press/pressconf/2008/html/is081204.en.html].
'''Euro interbank rate cut''' - 3-month LIBOR falls from 4.4% (25 Sept) to 3.14% (Dec 17) [http://uk.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsUS/idUKLH25052920081217]


====The United Kingdom====
====The United Kingdom====


'''UK output falls''' - by 0.5% between second and third quarters of 2008 [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7686552.stm] and by 1.5% between 3rd and 4th quarters [http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=192].
'''UK output falls''' - by 0.5% between second and third quarters of 2008 [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7686552.stm] and by 1.5% between 3rd and 4th quarters [http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=192].
'''Discount rate cut ''' by an unprecedented 2.5 p pt to 2 per cent.
'''Interbank rate falls''' - from 6.3% (Sept 30) to 3.01% (Dec 17) [http://uk.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsUS/idUKLH25052920081217].


'''UK Budget stimulus''' - discretionary public expenditure of 1.1% of GDP [http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/pbr08_chapter1_379.pdf][http://www.economist.com/world/britain/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12670326]
'''UK Budget stimulus''' - discretionary public expenditure of 1.1% of GDP [http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/pbr08_chapter1_379.pdf][http://www.economist.com/world/britain/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12670326]
'''Opposition party opposes fiscal stimulus''' - David Cameron's speech of 8 December [http://www.conservatives.com/News/Speeches/2008/12/David_Cameron_Fiscal_responsibility_and_the_recession.aspx]
'''Investment banks cut lending''' - by over two-thirds between September and October [http://www.economist.com/markets/indicators/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12566786]


'''UK national debt reaches 43.6% of GDP''' [http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/uk-economy/uk-national-debt/comment-page-1/]
'''UK national debt reaches 43.6% of GDP''' [http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/uk-economy/uk-national-debt/comment-page-1/]
====Other European countries====
'''Crises in Iceland, Hungary and Ukraine''' - to be tackled by loans from the [[International Monetary Fund]]
'''Sweden cuts interest rates''' - by 1.75 pt to 2.0% [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7764317.stm].
====Asia====


'''Recession in Japan'''  GDP expect to have fallen at an annualised rate of 12% in Q4 2008 [http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Japan-Q4-GDP-to-post-worst-fall-since-1974--BarCap-MTFHY?opendocument&src=rss]
'''Recession in Japan'''  GDP expect to have fallen at an annualised rate of 12% in Q4 2008 [http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Japan-Q4-GDP-to-post-worst-fall-since-1974--BarCap-MTFHY?opendocument&src=rss]

Revision as of 11:05, 5 March 2009

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https://en.citizendium.org/wiki/index.php?title=Recession_of_2009/Addendum&printable=yes
This addendum is a continuation of the article Recession of 2009.

Recent economic developments

2008 4th quarter

World

G20 leaders agree on need for fiscal stimulus [1]

The United States

US national debt reaches 72.5% of GDP

US unemployment rate the highest for 14 years - 6.7% in November 2008[2].

US consumer prices record falls - by 1% in October [3]and 1.7% in November [4]

US Federal Reserve Bank's $800 billion support package [5]

US Federal Reserve Bank buys mortgage-backed securities - Bank promises to buy up to $500 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities guarantee by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and up to $100billion worth of their direct debt [6].

US Federal Reserve Bank's quantitative easing - Open market purchases raise base money (the Bank's balance sheet total) from $0.9 trillion to $2.2 trillion [7]

US national debt reaches 72.5% 0f GDP[8]


The United Kingdom

UK output falls - by 0.5% between second and third quarters of 2008 [9] and by 1.5% between 3rd and 4th quarters [10].

UK Budget stimulus - discretionary public expenditure of 1.1% of GDP [11][12]

UK national debt reaches 43.6% of GDP [13]

Recession in Japan GDP expect to have fallen at an annualised rate of 12% in Q4 2008 [14]

Developing countries in recession GDP probably fell by an average annualised rate of around 15% in Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan [15]

First quarter of 2009

World

G7 Finance Ministers endorse fiscal stimulus policy [16]

The United States

$1.2 trillion 2009 budget deficit - forecast by the Congressional Budget Office [17].

President-elect Obama proposes major fiscal stimulus - in his speech of 8 January [18].

(Government spending expected to rise to 23% of GDP [19])

Fears of Trade War – America First Steel Act, Homeland Security Comm. approves bill requiring federal agencies to use U.S. steel for public works projects, (HR 5935) [20] [21]

Eurozone

Discount rate cut from 2.4% to 2% [22]


United Kingdom

Discount rate cut - from 2% to 1.0% [23].

IMF endorses policy IMF Deputy Managing Director says "There is no unique weakness in the UK economy, and we believe the measures taken ...will strengthen the economy over the medium term "[24].

Asset protection scheme[25]

Second quarter of 2009

United Kingdom

Bank of England Reduces Bank Rate by 0.5 percentage points to 0.5% and announces £75 Billion Asset Purchase Programme.

Forecasts and outturns

Annual percentage growth in Gross Domestic Product
(forecasts are shown in italics)
Date Source Country 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
06 November 2008 International Monetary Fund [26]. United States 2.0 1.4 -0.7
Europe 2.6 1.2 -0.5
Japan 2.1 0.5 -0.2
China 12 9.7 8.5
World 5.0 3.7 2.2
08 November 2008 Economist poll [27] United States 2.0 1.4 -0.1
United Kingdom 3.0 0.9 -1.0
France 2.2 0.9 0.0
Japan 2.1 0.5 -0.1
13 November 2008 OECD [28] United States 2.0 1.4 -0.9 1.6
Japan 2.1 0.5 -0.1 0.6
Europe 2.6 1.1 -0.5 1.2
22 December 2008 World Bank [29] United States 2.0 1.4 -0.5 2.0
Japan 2.1 0.5 -0.1 1.5
Euro area 2.6 1.1 -0.6 1.6
China 12 9.4 7.5 8.5
Developing [1] 6.1 5.0 2.9 4.7
World 3.7 2.5 0.9 3.0
28 January 2009 International Monetary Fund [30] United States 2.0 1.1 -1.6 1.6
United Kingdom 3.0 0.7 -2.8 0.2
France 2.2 0.8 -1.9 0.7
Japan 2.4 -0.3 -2.6 0.6
China 13 9 6.7 8
World 5.2 3.4 0.5 3.0


  1. ↑ Developing countries except China and India.
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