Recession of 2009/Addendum: Difference between revisions

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==Selected economic statistics==


== Recent economic developments==
===Growth rates===


===2008 4th quarter===
:GDP at constant market prices<br>
::% change on previous period


====World====
::{|class="wikitable"
!
!colspan = "4"|
!colspan = "4"|2007
!colspan = "4"|2008
!colspan = "4"|2009
!colspan = "4"|2010
!colspan = "4"|2011
|-
!
! 2006
! 2007
! 2008
! 2009
!Q1
!Q2
!Q3
!Q4
!Q1
!Q2
!Q3
!Q4
!Q1
!Q2
!Q3
!Q4
!Q1
!Q2
!Q3
!Q4
!Q1
!Q2
!Q3
!Q4 
|-
|United States
| 2.8
| 2.0
| 0.4
| -2.4
| 0.0
| 1.2
| 1.6
| 0.0
| 0.2
| 0.7
| -0.1
| -1.4
| -1.2
| -0.2
| 0.4
| 1.2
| 0.9
| 0.9
| 0.6
| 0.6
| 0.1
| 0.3
| 0.5
| 0.7
|-
|Japan
| 2.0
| 2.4
| -0.6
| -5.3
| 1.0
| -0.3
| 0.4
| 1.0
| 0.3
| -1.2
| -0.4
| -3.2
| -4.2
|  1.7
|  0.1
| 1.1
| 1.2
| 1.3
| 0.6
| -0.6
| -1.8
| -0.3
| 1.7
| -0.2
|-
|Canada
| 3.1
| 2.7
| 0.5
| -2.6
| 1.0
| 1.0
| 0.6
| 0.2
| -0.2
| 0.1
| 0.2
| 0.8
| -1.4
| -0.6
| 0.1
| 1.2
| 1.5
| 0.6
| 0.6
| 0.8
| 0.9
| -0.2
| 1.0
| 0.4
|-
|United Kingdom
| 2.8
| 3.0
| 0.7
| -4.8
| 0.8
| 0.8
| 0.6
| 0.9
| 0.3
| 0.0
| -0.7
| -1.6
| -2.3
| -0.7
| -0.3
|  0.4
|  0.4
|  1.1
|  0.7
| -0.5
|  0.2
| -0.1 
|  0.6
| -0.3
|-
|Germany
| 3.0
| 2.5
| 1.3
| -5.0
| 0.4
| 0.4
| 0.6
| 0.3
| 1.5
| -0.5
| -0.5
| -2.1
| -3.4
|  0.5
|  0.7
|  0.3
|  0.6
|  1.9
|  0.8
|  0.5
| 1.3
| 0.3
| 0.6
| -0.2
|-
|France
| 2.2
| 2.2
| 0.8
| -2.3
| 0.6
| 0.5
| 0.7
| 0.4
| 0.4
| -0.3
| 0.1
| -1.1
| -1.5
|  0.1
|  0.3
|  0.6
|  0.2
|  0.7
|  0.4
|  0.4
| 0.9
| 0.0
| 0.3
| 0.2
|-
|Italy
| 2.0
| 1.6
| -1.0
| -5.0
| 0.2
| 0.1
| 0.2
| -0.3
| 0.3
| -0.6
| -0.7
| -2.1
| -2.9
| -0.3
| 0.4
| -0.1
|  0.4
|  0.5
|  0.2
|  0.2
|  0.1
|  0.3
| -0.2
| -0.7
|}
::(Source: OECD, Main Economic Indicators)


'''G20 leaders agree on need for fiscal stimulus [http://en.citizendium.org/wiki/G20_summit/Addendum]
===Consumer prices===
: percentage increase on the same period of the previous year


:::::::{|class = "wikitable"


'''The oil price falls'''. (December Brent North Sea crude $45/barrel, down fron July $147 peak)[http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hN_FBZ_T8tDZj6pWYGzYVZMH9Htg].
! colspan = "3"|
! colspan = "4"| 2009
|-
!
! 2008
! 2009
! &nbsp;Mar&nbsp;
! &nbsp;Jun&nbsp;
! &nbsp;Sep&nbsp;
! &nbsp;Dec&nbsp;
|-
! United States
| align = "center"| 3.8
| align = "center"|-0.4
| align = "center"|-0.4
| align = "center"|-1.4
| align = "center"|-1.3
| align = "center"|2.7
|-
! United Kingdom
| align = "center"| 3.6
| align = "center"| 2.2
| align = "center"| 2.9
| align = "center"| 1.8
| align = "center"| 1.1
| align = "center"| 2.8
|-
! France
| align = "center"| 2.8
| align = "center"| 0.1
| align = "center"| 0.3
| align = "center"| -0.5
| align = "center"| -0.4
| align = "center"| 0.9
|-
! Germany
| align = "center"| 2.6
| align = "center"| 0.4
| align = "center"| 0.5
| align = "center"| 0.1
| align = "center"| -0.3
| align = "center"| 0.9
|-
! Italy
| align = "center"| 3.3
| align = "center"| 0.8
| align = "center"| 1.2
| align = "center"| 0.5
| align = "center"| 0.2
| align = "center"| 1.3
|-
! Japan
| align = "center"| 1.4
| align = "center"| -1.4
| align = "center"| -0.3
| align = "center"| -1.8
| align = "center"| -2.2
| align = "center"| -1.3
|-
! G7 countries
| align = "center"| 3.2
| align = "center"| -0.1
| align = "center"| -0.1
| align = "center"| -0.9
| align = "center"| -1.0
| align = "center"|  1.8
|}


====The United States====
: (Source OECD[http://www.oecd.org/document/57/0,3343,en_2649_33715_44523833_1_1_1_1,00.html] )
<small>
[[Recession of 2009/Addendum#Selected economic statistics|RETURN TO THE TOP]]
</small>
===Unemployment rates===
: OECD harmonised rates
:: %  seasonally adjusted)


'''US economy in recession'''' - since December 2007 according to the National Bureau of Economic Research [http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2008-12-01-recession-nber-statement_N.htm].
:::::::{|class = "wikitable"
!
!colspan = "3"|
!colspan = "4"|2009
|-
!align="center"|
!align="center"| 2007  
!align="center"| 2008
!align="center"| 2009
!align="center"| &nbsp; Q1&nbsp;
!align="center"| &nbsp; Q2&nbsp;
!align="center"| &nbsp; Q3&nbsp;
!align="center"| &nbsp; Q4&nbsp;
|-
|align="center"| United States
|align="center"| 4.6
|align="center"| 5.8
|align="center"| 9.3
|align="center"| 8.2
|align="center"| 9.3
|align="center"| 9.7
|align="center"| 10.0
|-
|align="center"| United Kingdom
|align="center"| 5.3
|align="center"| 5.5
|align="center"| 7.6
|align="center"| 7.1
|align="center"| 7.7
|align="center"| 7.8
|align="center"| 7.7
|-
|align="center"|Japan
|align="center"| 3.9
|align="center"| 4.0
|align="center"| 5.1
|align="center"| 4.5
|align="center"| 5.1
|align="center"| 5.1
|align="center"| 5.2
|-
|align="center"|Germany
|align="center"| 8.4
|align="center"| 7.3
|align="center"| 7.5
|align="center"| 7.3
|align="center"| 7.6
|align="center"| 7.6
|align="center"| 7.5
|-
|align="center"|France
|align="center"| 8.3
|align="center"| 7.9
|align="center"| 9.4
|align="center"| 8.9
|align="center"| 9.3
|align="center"| 9.5
|align="center"| 10.0
|}


'''US consumer confidence falls''' to its lowest point since first measured in 1967[http://www.conference-board.org/economics/ConsumerConfidence.cfm].
:: (Source: OECD)[http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/20/21/44746304.pdf]
<small>
[[Recession of 2009/Addendum#Selected economic statistics|RETURN TO THE TOP]]
</small>


'''US output falls''' - by 0.3% between second and third quarters of 2008 [http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm]
===Commodity prices===


'''US interest rate reduced''' Federal  Reserve Bank's benchmark rate cut to betweee 0 and 1/4% [http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20081216b.htm.].
IMF Index of Primary Commodity Prices,
(2005=100, in terms of US dollars)


'''Dollar interbank rate fall''' - 3-month LIBOR falls  from 2.8% (September) to 1.58%  (Dec 17)[http://uk.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsUS/idUKLH25052920081217].
:::::::{|class = "wikitable"
| colspan = "4" align = "center"|2007
| colspan = "4" align = "center"|2008
| colspan = "4" align = "center"|2009
|-
| Q1
| Q2
| Q3
| Q4
| Q1
| Q2
| Q3
| Q4
| Q1
| Q2
| Q3
| Q4
|-
| 118
| 130
| 137
| 154
| 172
| 203
| 197
| 117
| 99
| 114
| 126
| 136
|}


'''US unemployment rate  the highest for 14 years''' -  6.7% in November 2008[http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/bbemp-20081205.pdf].
:::(Source: IMF [http://www.imf.org/external/np/res/commod/table1a.pdf])


'''US consumer prices record  falls ''' - by 1% in October [http://www.bls.gov/CPI/]and 1.7% in November [http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/16/news/economy/cpi/index.htm]
===The oil price===
 
The price of crude oil on the New York Stock Exchange ($/barrel[http://www.nyse.tv/crude-oil-price-history.htm])
'''US congress fails to agree on fiscal stimulus''' [http://www.economist.com/world/unitedstates/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12641712][http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/business/july-dec08/stimulusplans_11-10.html] [http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/10/stimulus-math-wonkish/?apage=6]
:::::::{|class = "wikitable"
 
!colspan = "2"|2007
'''US Federal Reserve Bank's $800 billion support package''' [http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/26/business/economy/26fed.html?bl&ex=1227848400&en=5a50becfbe5bac73&ei=5087%0A]
!colspan = "2"|2008
 
!colspan = "2"| 2009
'''US Federal Reserve Bank buys mortgage-backed securities''' - Bank promises to buy up to $500 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities guarantee by Fannie  Mae and Freddie Mac and up to $100billion worth of their direct debt [http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12689745].
!colspan = "2"| 2010
 
|-
'''US Federal Reserve Bank's quantitative easing''' - Open market purchases raise base money (the Bank's balance sheet total)  from $0.9 trillion to $2.2 trillion [http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122948091644013041.html]
| January
 
| &nbsp;&nbsp;June&nbsp;&nbsp;
====Eurozone====
| January
 
| &nbsp;&nbsp;June&nbsp;&nbsp;
'''European Fiscal Stimulus''' EC Commission plans 1.5% GDP fiscal stimulus [http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSLC32832320081212].
| January
 
| &nbsp;&nbsp;June&nbsp;&nbsp;
'''Eurozone interest rate cut''' - by the European Central Bank by 1.5 p points to 2.5% [http://www.ecb.int/press/pressconf/2008/html/is081204.en.html].
| January
 
| &nbsp;&nbsp;June&nbsp;&nbsp;
'''Euro interbank rate cut''' - 3-month LIBOR falls from 4.4% (25 Sept) to 3.14% (Dec 17) [http://uk.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsUS/idUKLH25052920081217]
|-
 
|align="center"| 56
====The United Kingdom====
|align="center"| 65
 
|align="center"| 98
'''UK output falls''' - by 0.5% between second and third quarters of 2008 [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7686552.stm].
|align="center"| 139
 
|align="center"| 46
'''Discount rate cut ''' by an unprecedented 2.5 p pt to 2 per cent.
|align="center"| 68
 
|align="center"| 83
'''Interbank rate falls''' - from 6.3% (Sept 30) to 3.01% (Dec 17) [http://uk.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsUS/idUKLH25052920081217].
|align="center"| 72
 
|}
'''UK Budget stimulus''' - discretionary public expenditure of 1.1% of GDP [http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/pbr08_chapter1_379.pdf][http://www.economist.com/world/britain/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12670326]
 
'''Investment banks cut lending''' - by over two-thirds between September and October [http://www.economist.com/markets/indicators/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12566786]
 
====Other European countries====
 
'''Crises in Iceland, Hungary and Ukraine''' - to be tackled by loans from the [[International Monetary Fund]]
 
'''Sweden cuts interest rates''' - by 1.75 pt to 2.0% [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7764317.stm].
 
====Asia====
 
'''Recession in Japan''' - as output falls by 0.9% and 0.1% in 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2008.
 
===First quarter of 2009===
 
====The United States====
 
'''President-elect Obama proposes major fiscal stimulus''' - in his speech of 8 January [http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/58ee3966-dd9d-11dd-930e-000077b07658.html].
 
====United Kingdom====
'''Discount  rate cut''' - from 2% to 1.5% [http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/news/2009/001.htm].


==Forecasts and outturns==
===World trade===
: OECD  trade in goods and services
:: % value change on previous quarter (priced in US$).


:::'''Annual percentage growth in Gross Domestic Product'''
:::::::{|class="wikitable"  
 
!
:::(forecasts are shown in ''italics'')
!colspan = "4"|2008
 
!colspan = "4"|2009
:::{|class="wikitable"
!colspan = "4"|2010
!Date
!Source
!Country
! 2007
! 2008
! 2009
! 2010
! 2011
|-
|-
|02 October 2008
!
|International Monetary Fund [http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/02/index.htm].
!Q1
|United States
!Q2
|2.0
!Q3
|''1.6''
!Q4
|''0.1''
!Q1
|
!Q2
!Q3
!Q4
!Q1
!Q2
!Q3
!Q4
|-
|-
!Exports
| 5.6
| 5.6
| -3.0
| -18.4
| -12.7
| 1.8
| 7.5
| 7.6
| 0.6
|
|
|
|
|United Kingdom
|3.0
|''1.0''
|''-0.1''
|
|
|-
|-
!Imports
|6.2
|5.2
| -2.0
| -18.5
| -14.3
| -0.5
| 8.1
| 6.2
| 2.5
|
|
|
|
|France
|2.2
|''0.8''
|''0.2''
|
|
|}
::(Source: OECD economic indicators[http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/10/47/44479849.pdf])
<small>
[[Recession of 2009/Addendum#Selected economic statistics|RETURN TO THE TOP]]
</small>
==Policy Actions==
===Central bank measures===
:::{|class = "wikitable"
!
! Federal Reserve Bank
! European Central Bank
! &nbsp;&nbsp;Bank of Japan&nbsp;&nbsp;
! &nbsp;&nbsp;Bank of England&nbsp;&nbsp;
|-
|-
|
! Lowering policy rates
|
to very low levels
|Japan
|Align = "center"|X
|2.1
|Align = "center"|De facto
|''0.7''
|Align = "center"|X
|''0.5''
|Align = "center"|X
|
|-
|-
|
! Increasing liquidity provision
|
to financial institutions
|China
|Align = "center"|X
| 12
|Align = "center"|X
| ''10''
|Align = "center"|X
|''9
|Align = "center"|X
|
|-
|-
|
! Intervening directly in wider
|
segments of the financial market
|World
|Align = "center"|X
|5.0
|Align = "center"|X
|''3.9''
|Align = "center"|X
|''3.0''
|Align = "center"|X
|
|-
|-
|08 October 2008
! Purchasing long-term
|Conference Board [http://www.conference-board.org/economics/chiefEconomist.cfm]
government bonds
|United States
|Align = "center"|X
|2.0
|Align = "center"|
|''1.7''
|Align = "center"|X
|''0.0''
|Align = "center"|X
|
|
|-
|-
|06 November 2008
!Supporting specific
|International Monetary Fund [http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2008/NEW110608A.htm].
institutions
|United States
|Align = "center"|X
|2.0
|Align = "center"|
|''1.4''
|Align = "center"|X
|''-0.7''
|Align = "center"|X
|
|}
 
:Source: OECD Economics Working Papper No 753 February 2010[http://www.oecdilibrary.org/docserver/download/fulltext/5kml6xm7qgs6.pdf?expires=1271935601&id=0000&accname=freeContent&checksum=4409F41DDF3E1725FB09A73F274F2806]
<small>
[[Recession of 2009/Addendum#Selected economic statistics|RETURN TO THE TOP]]
</small>
===[[Fiscal stimulus]] packages===
:  % of GDP
 
:::::::::{|class = "wikitable"
!
!align="center"| 2008
!align="center"| 2009
!align="center"| 2010
!align="center"| Total
|-
|-
|
|align="center"|United States
|
|align="center"|1.1
|Europe
|align="center"|2.0
|2.6
|align="center"|1.8
|''1.2''
|align="center"|4.8
|''-0.5''
|
|-
|-
|
|align="center"|United Kingdom
|
|align="center"|0.2
|Japan
|align="center"|1.4
|2.1
|align="center"|-0.1
|''0.5''
|align="center"|1.5
|''-0.2''
|
|-
|-
|
|align="center"|Germany
|
|align="center"|0.0
|China
|align="center"|1.5
| 12
|align="center"|2.0
| ''9.7''
|align="center"|3.4
|''8.5''
|
|-
|-
|
|align="center"|France
|
|align="center"|0.0
|World
|align="center"|0.7
|5.0
|align="center"|0.7
|''3.7''
|align="center"|1.3
|''2.2''
|
|-
|-
|08 November 2008
|align="center"|Japan
|Economist poll [http://www.economist.com/markets/indicators/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12564074]
|align="center"|0.4
|United States
|align="center"|1.4
|2.0
|align="center"|0.4
|''1.4''
|align="center"|2.2
|''-0.1''
|
|
|-
|-
|
|align="center"|Canada
|
|align="center"|0.0
|United Kingdom
|align="center"|1.5
|3.0
|align="center"|1.3
|''0.9''
|align="center"|2.7
|''-1.0''
|
|-
|-
|
|align="center"|China
|
|align="center"|0.4
|France
|align="center"|2.0
|2.2
|align="center"|2.0
|''0.9''
|align="center"|4.4
|''0.0''
|}
|
 
::(Source: IMF estimates February 2009 [http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2009/020109.pdf])
<small>
[[Recession of 2009/Addendum#Selected economic statistics|RETURN TO THE TOP]]
</small>
==Debt==
 
===Public debt estimates===
:([[National debt]]
:: % of GDP )
 
:::{|class = "wikitable"
!
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Japan&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Italy&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp; France&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp; Germany &nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"| United States
!align="center"| United Kingdom
!align="center"| Average <ref> average of advanced G20 countries</ref>
|-
|-
|
|2007
|
|align="center"|188
|Japan
|align="center"|104
|2.1
|align="center"|64
|''0.5''
|align="center"|63
|''-0.1''
|align="center"|62
|
|align="center"|44
|align="center"|78
|-
|-
|13 November 2008
|2009
|OECD [http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/55/17/41666279.pdf]
|align="center"|217
|United States
|align="center"|117
|2.0
|align="center"|77
|''1.4''
|align="center"|80
|''-0.9''
|align="center"|89
|''1.6''
|align="center"|69
|align="center"|101
|-
|-
|
|2010
|
|align="center"|219
|Japan
|align="center"|116
|2.1
|align="center"|78
|''0.5''
|align="center"|79
|''-0.1''
|align="center"|85
|''0.6''
|align="center"|69
|align="center"|99
|-
|-
|
|2014
|
|align="center"|246
|Europe
|align="center"|129
|2.6
|align="center"|96
|''1.1''
|align="center"|89
|''-0.5''
|align="center"|108
|''1.2''
|align="center"|98
|align="center"|118
|}
 
:::::<references/>
 
::(Source: IMF Staff Position Note November 2009 [https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/spn/2009/spn0925.pdf])
<small>
[[Recession of 2009/Addendum#Selected economic statistics|RETURN TO THE TOP]]
</small>
===Total debt===
 
: % of GDP 2008
 
:::{|class = "wikitable"
!
!align="center"| United Kingdom
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Japan&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp; France&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Italy&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"| United States
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp; Germany &nbsp;&nbsp;
|-
|-
|22 December 2008
!Government
|World Bank [http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTGEP2009/Resources/10363_WebPDF-w47.pdf]
|align="center"|52
|United States
|align="center"|188
|2.0
|align="center"|73
|''1.4''
|align="center"|101
|''-0.5''
|align="center"|60
|''2.0''
|align="center"|69
|-
|-
|
!Financial institutions
|
|align="center"|202
|Japan
|align="center"|108
|2.1
|align="center"|81
|''0.5''
|align="center"|77
|''-0.1''
|align="center"|56
|''1.5''
|align="center"|76
|-
|-
|
!Non-financial businesses
|
|align="center"|114
|Euro area
|align="center"|96
|2.6
|align="center"|110
|''1.1''
|align="center"|81
|''-0.6''
|align="center"|78
|''1.6''
|align="center"|66
|-
|-
|
!Households
|
|align="center"|101
|China
|align="center"|67
|12
|align="center"|44
|''9.4''
|align="center"|40
|''7.5''
|align="center"|56
|''8.5''
|align="center"|47
|-
|-
|
!Total
|
|align="center"|469
|Developing <ref> Developing countries except China and India.</ref>
|align="center"|459
|6.1
|align="center"|308
|''5.0''
|align="center"|298
|''2.9''
|align="center"|290
|''4.7''
|align="center"|274
|-
|-
|
! % growth 2000-08
|
|align="center"|10.2
| World
|align="center"|0.3
|3.7
|align="center"|7.7
|''2.5''
|align="center"|6.3
|''0.9''
|align="center"|8.1
|''3.0''
|align="center"|2.5
|}
|}
:(Source: ''Debt and Deleverageing, the Global Credit Bubble and its Consequences'', McKinsey, 2010[http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/reports/freepass_pdfs/debt_and_deleveraging/debt_and_deleveraging_full_report.pdf])
<small>
[[Recession of 2009/Addendum#Selected economic statistics|RETURN TO THE TOP]]
</small>




<references/>
<references/>

Latest revision as of 05:11, 24 April 2012

Selected economic statistics

Growth rates

GDP at constant market prices
% change on previous period
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2006 2007 2008 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
United States 2.8 2.0 0.4 -2.4 0.0 1.2 1.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 -0.1 -1.4 -1.2 -0.2 0.4 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7
Japan 2.0 2.4 -0.6 -5.3 1.0 -0.3 0.4 1.0 0.3 -1.2 -0.4 -3.2 -4.2 1.7 0.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 0.6 -0.6 -1.8 -0.3 1.7 -0.2
Canada 3.1 2.7 0.5 -2.6 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.8 -1.4 -0.6 0.1 1.2 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 -0.2 1.0 0.4
United Kingdom 2.8 3.0 0.7 -4.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 -0.7 -1.6 -2.3 -0.7 -0.3 0.4 0.4 1.1 0.7 -0.5 0.2 -0.1 0.6 -0.3
Germany 3.0 2.5 1.3 -5.0 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 1.5 -0.5 -0.5 -2.1 -3.4 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.6 1.9 0.8 0.5 1.3 0.3 0.6 -0.2
France 2.2 2.2 0.8 -2.3 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.4 -0.3 0.1 -1.1 -1.5 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.0 0.3 0.2
Italy 2.0 1.6 -1.0 -5.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.3 0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -2.1 -2.9 -0.3 0.4 -0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 -0.2 -0.7
(Source: OECD, Main Economic Indicators)

Consumer prices

percentage increase on the same period of the previous year
2009
2008 2009  Mar   Jun   Sep   Dec 
United States 3.8 -0.4 -0.4 -1.4 -1.3 2.7
United Kingdom 3.6 2.2 2.9 1.8 1.1 2.8
France 2.8 0.1 0.3 -0.5 -0.4 0.9
Germany 2.6 0.4 0.5 0.1 -0.3 0.9
Italy 3.3 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.2 1.3
Japan 1.4 -1.4 -0.3 -1.8 -2.2 -1.3
G7 countries 3.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.9 -1.0 1.8
(Source OECD[1] )

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Unemployment rates

OECD harmonised rates
% seasonally adjusted)
2009
2007 2008 2009   Q1    Q2    Q3    Q4 
United States 4.6 5.8 9.3 8.2 9.3 9.7 10.0
United Kingdom 5.3 5.5 7.6 7.1 7.7 7.8 7.7
Japan 3.9 4.0 5.1 4.5 5.1 5.1 5.2
Germany 8.4 7.3 7.5 7.3 7.6 7.6 7.5
France 8.3 7.9 9.4 8.9 9.3 9.5 10.0
(Source: OECD)[2]

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Commodity prices

IMF Index of Primary Commodity Prices, (2005=100, in terms of US dollars)

2007 2008 2009
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
118 130 137 154 172 203 197 117 99 114 126 136
(Source: IMF [3])

The oil price

The price of crude oil on the New York Stock Exchange ($/barrel[4])

2007 2008 2009 2010
January   June   January   June   January   June   January   June  
56 65 98 139 46 68 83 72

World trade

OECD trade in goods and services
% value change on previous quarter (priced in US$).
2008 2009 2010
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Exports 5.6 5.6 -3.0 -18.4 -12.7 1.8 7.5 7.6 0.6
Imports 6.2 5.2 -2.0 -18.5 -14.3 -0.5 8.1 6.2 2.5
(Source: OECD economic indicators[5])

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Policy Actions

Central bank measures

Federal Reserve Bank European Central Bank   Bank of Japan     Bank of England  
Lowering policy rates

to very low levels

X De facto X X
Increasing liquidity provision

to financial institutions

X X X X
Intervening directly in wider

segments of the financial market

X X X X
Purchasing long-term

government bonds

X X X
Supporting specific

institutions

X X X
Source: OECD Economics Working Papper No 753 February 2010[6]

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Fiscal stimulus packages

% of GDP
2008 2009 2010 Total
United States 1.1 2.0 1.8 4.8
United Kingdom 0.2 1.4 -0.1 1.5
Germany 0.0 1.5 2.0 3.4
France 0.0 0.7 0.7 1.3
Japan 0.4 1.4 0.4 2.2
Canada 0.0 1.5 1.3 2.7
China 0.4 2.0 2.0 4.4
(Source: IMF estimates February 2009 [7])

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Debt

Public debt estimates

(National debt
% of GDP )
   Japan       Italy       France      Germany    United States United Kingdom Average [1]
2007 188 104 64 63 62 44 78
2009 217 117 77 80 89 69 101
2010 219 116 78 79 85 69 99
2014 246 129 96 89 108 98 118
  1. ↑ average of advanced G20 countries
    2. (Source: IMF Staff Position Note November 2009 [8])

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    Total debt

    % of GDP 2008
    United Kingdom    Japan       France       Italy     United States    Germany   
    Government 52 188 73 101 60 69
    Financial institutions 202 108 81 77 56 76
    Non-financial businesses 114 96 110 81 78 66
    Households 101 67 44 40 56 47
    Total 469 459 308 298 290 274
    % growth 2000-08 10.2 0.3 7.7 6.3 8.1 2.5
    (Source: Debt and Deleverageing, the Global Credit Bubble and its Consequences, McKinsey, 2010[9])

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